1. Full speed ahead
After a bumpy couple of years blighted by a Covid earthquake and macroeconomic aftershocks, all the signs suggest 2025 can be the year clubs definitively clear the debris and accelerate growth.
The latest HFA Global Report revealed 86.8% of club and studio operators expect membership growth in the next 12 months, with more than two-thirds anticipating increases of over 5%. Additionally, 92.6% of operators project revenue uplift, reflecting a broad-based recovery. HFA forecasts suggest the fitness industry is growing at a rate of approximately 8.7% per year, with global club memberships projected to reach 230 million by 2030.
Gen Z and Millennials are primed to be key drivers of this industry expansion, with the ABC Wellness Watch Report Fall 2024 finding 73% of Gen Z and 72% of Millennials are using a fitness facility (versus 54% of Gen X and 42% of Boomers) with gym-floor workouts, PT and group training listed as their top three ways to work out.
2. Spreading the load
Substantial growth and the post-pandemic pattern of members using facilities more frequently means gyms are getting busier, forcing operators to think hard about how they manage footfall and maximize the capacity of their facilities.
For many, this means funneling members away from the gym floor towards high-capacity areas like the studio to reduce bottlenecks and service more members simultaneously.
“The historical industry average has typically seen 35% of members not attending their club in the past 12 weeks, but since the pandemic, this has dropped to 8% across the Fitness First Germany estate, so our clubs are massively full,” says Martin Seibold, CEO of LifeFit Group.
“Members visiting more often means higher retention levels, so we want more people using our studios because we can facilitate a lot more of them in classes. At the same time, you create strong communities, sparked by Instructors mingling with the members and helping them forge connections. It means our members are forming more friendships, making them far less likely to leave the gym, so our studios are a central pillar of our growth strategy.”
3. ‘Perennials’ make their mark
Gen Z and Millennials have dominated fitness industry discourse in recent years, but another powerful demographic is primed to take center stage in 2025 – Perennials. As we age better and people stay fitter for longer, traditional demographics are increasingly becoming redundant, as outlined in Mauro Guillén’s excellent book The Perennials.
The 2024 Future of Wellness report from McKinsey found demand for healthy ageing services is increasing, with 70 per cent of consumers in the US and UK and 85 per cent in China purchasing a product in this category in the preceding year. McKinsey notes that by 2030, one in six people worldwide will be aged over 60, predicting a greater focus on healthy aging as younger people look for preventative solutions and older people aim to improve their longevity and healthspan.
Reflecting the current focus on longevity, fitness programmes for older adults ranked third in the 2024 ACSM Fitness Trends list. ACSM spokesperson Christian Thompson pointed out it’s important not to have a one-size-fits-all approach to older adults exercise programming, as fitness levels in this demographic are highly varied.
From a group training perspective, this is leading to new programming crafted through the lens of biological age vs actual age. New innovations include LES MILLS THRIVE™ – a low-intensity workout focused on lower body strength to keep people fit for life, without being targeted at a certain age group. It can be highly valuable for seniors seeking to maintain strength, but also for people who may have become deconditioned due to illness, injuries or just a long period away from being active.
Growing number of operators and fitness suppliers are placing greater emphasis on supporting longevity in 2025, tapping into a large and prosperous demographic looking to add years to their life and life to their years.
4. Frenemy at the gate
As sure as every January will usher in waves of new gym members, you can be certain that every 12-18 months the media will hype the arrival of the latest existential threat to the future of gyms. Whether it was the pandemic-driven boom in digital fitness and Peloton’s John Foley famously describing gyms as "a broken model of yesteryear", the emergence of the next ‘exercise pill’, or the latest economic crisis to squeeze consumer spending power, there will always be a new ‘gym-killer’ on the horizon, accompanied by a slew of doom-laden headlines.
Weight loss drugs are the latest enemy at the gate and have already been blamed for falling gym attendances and a major shake-up of the industry. Some operators – particularly at the premium end – have responded quickly to the emergence of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs by grasping the nettle and incorporating them into member pathways, while others maintain that eating well and exercising regularly means members shouldn’t need them.
What’s become clear is that weight loss drugs are here to stay, meaning gyms must once again find the opportunity amid the ‘crisis’ and convert enemies into friends. And with research indicating GLP-1 recipients lose large amounts of muscle as well as fat, there’s a clear need for strength training to help these recipients build strength and maintain a healthy weight.
Recognizing the opportunity, Equinox has launched a “GLP-1 protocol” – a targeted PT program that helps members on these medications retain and build muscle during the process – while other operators will surely follow suit.
“With every change in society, people see it as an opportunity or a threat and we wouldn’t be where we are if we didn’t always take the glass half full view,” adds LifeFit Group’s Martin Seibold.
“We see the emergence of weight loss drugs as a big opportunity to drive more people into gym-based activity, both for restorative and preventative reasons. We know exercise offers so many more benefits beyond weight loss, so the stage is set for clubs to be bold and seize this opportunity.”
5. Women’s Health Takes Centre Stage
After years of marginalization, the conversation around women’s health is getting louder and operators are stepping up to the plate with female-focused offerings to support reproductive health, hormonal balance and mitigating the impacts of perimenopause.
Among these areas, the impact of menstruation on training is far-reaching and significant. Three-quarters of female athletes suffer negative side effects based on their cycle (a figure thought to be even higher among non-athletes), while 79% of women take a day off exercise when their period starts.
Organisations like The Well HQ are leading the industry shift, with operators like The Gym Group and Everyone Active taking clear action to support this. Les Mills has created a suite of free resources to help women track their cycle and optimize their training, with further research and insights to follow.
In the year ahead, expect to see more offerings emerge across the industry to specifically support women, with a holistic approach that addresses both physical and mental wellbeing.
6. Coming full circuit
From the early days of the industry, through to the rise of F45 and numerous boutiques, circuits have played a vital role in bringing more people into exercise, and this longstanding trend looks set to accelerate in 2025.
Buoyed by the continued popularity of boutiques and the boom in fitness competition events, members are flocking towards functional circuit training that combines strength and cardio in thrilling class environments.
“Before BODYPUMP became a big hit, our circuit classes dominated the timetable (pulling in 150 members per class) and we’ve seen the resurgence of this trend since we launched LES MILLS CEREMONY in our New Zealand clubs,” notes Les Mills Managing Director Phillip Mills.
“Now, many leading operators are making this exciting style of training a top priority in the studio and increasingly taking these classes out onto the gym floor to amp up the energy.”
7. Fitness is the new festival
The fusion of fitness and festival culture continues to skyrocket in popularity, and 2025 is set to take it to the next level. As people shift their focus toward holistic, healthy lifestyles, fitness festivals offer the perfect blend of social engagement and wellbeing. Their appeal stretches far beyond the workouts – incorporating community, connection, and the celebration of health in a festival-like atmosphere. With music pumping and energy levels high, these events provide a unique, dynamic way to experience fitness in a social setting.
As group training expert and hardcore dance DJ Antony Stewart noted in a recent edition of Emma Barry’s Badass Bullets, nightclubs used to be where people came together and met each other, building bonds through a shared love of music, but Covid was the nail in the coffin for that world.
“So where can young people go now to meet other people and move together? It’s the gym!”, he added. “If you can create experiences that bring music and young people together – a bit like Les Mills have done with their rave events that are touring all over the world – I’m predicting and seeing already a big demand for that.”
We’ll see a spike in rave-inspired fitness events filling the calendar in 2025, with major international brand-led events and a host of local fitness facilities getting in on the act, offering dynamic spaces for healthy hedonists to have fun and forge communities.
